- cross-posted to:
- usa@midwest.social
- cross-posted to:
- usa@midwest.social
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This is the usual fleecing of the retail investors by the institutional sponsors.
The only people surprised are the retail investors.
xAI buried inside SpaceX wasn’t enough to make them uncomfortable?
It’s worse than that… what they IPO with is basically a tiny percentage of SpaceX composed solely of xAI
The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math, which is why it rarely makes sense
That’s what I was referencing, I’m surprised the regulators and the exchange let that happen
You are surprised that the people doing this during Occupy Wall Street are allowing this?
Who is that
The entire stock market is basically 99.9% blind speculation and 0.1% basic math
The US, England, and Japan are all returning to quantitative easing policy. So we’ve once again got too much money chasing too few investments. What a lot of naive investors see as a market bubble is recognized among the more savvy as a return to our ongoing policy of asset inflation.
A lot of what SpaceX is selling boils down to an access point to public spending - through sale of military hardware and equipment, network access to Starlink, and R&D funds allocated to the private sector. That’s what is really driving investment. It is, in effect, a play on the future of police and military spending.
Still wildly overvalued imho. But not “blind” speculation.
So we’ve once again got too much money chasing too few investments.
maybe it’s time to redistribute that too much money. lets free them from their burden.
Can’t do that. That’s Communism. Communism Killed 10 Trillion People.
It’s not even a surprise, this is from SpaceX s-1 document: only 7% of their estimated valuation is from Space related activities
Is “Enterprise Applications” like shooting datacenters into space, or copilot business edition?
I think the “Space-Enabled Solutions” part sounds more like designing satellites than the space-launch business.They bought Cursor for AI. Earlier this year cursor switched to pay per use model, so now every engineer is spending dozens to hundreds of AI Bucks. I don’t think Cursor is profitable on that yet, but I imagine xAI are looking to scale that model, both to turn Grok into something that earns an income, and to scale up to profit despite cost of datacenters/training.
I’m skeptical there is really a profitable market, but it might be the most grounded of his predictions. The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale
The technology exists, the business model is successful at a small scale, so they just need to scale
could you provide details on that?
The corporate governance arrangements (or lack thereof) should be enough to make any investor with two functioning brain cells stay well clear. But the stock market has lost all touch with reality long ago. The crash will be brutal. And small investors will hold the bag, as per standard procedure.
Just imagine how many problems 600bn USD would solve. Instead, it’s just fake virtual currency flowing through the hands of a few billionaires
They could probably just about clean a small pond for that amount of money.
One should note that the stock is still up $50 per share up from its IPO price ($135 vs $185 or about 37%). Also the Cursor option was fully outlined before the IPO so it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Not that I don’t think all of this is dumb, it’s just another hype / gambling stock without much substance led by Elon who got his Twitter buyout.
No crying in the casino
The only people that got in below 160 a share are insiders, space x employees and institutional investments. That’s why they did a day 1 rug pull when the stock reached 180. They made sure no matter what was gonna happen, they weren’t going to be the bag holders.
I got three shares at $158 just to see if I was fast enough. Sold it at ~200 a bit later because I’m too poor to hold the bag.
World’s first ex-trillionaire , yes?
Nope. Since everyone bought his shares he got to keep their money
By that logic he’s not a trillionaire at all. They only sold 4% of the company for some 68 billion USD. A trillion dollars was never liquidated.
Edit: 4.3% and 75 billion are the correct numbers.
He gets to borrow against the shares as if he has that trillion in cash.
Yeah sure I also think that he is a trillionare at the moment. I was just trying to show that it’s absurd to say he has the money even if the stock price falls because he’s already liquidated it.
What moron bank would lend against no actual collateral.
Almost all of them. That’s how the Epstein class fund their lifestyles, they borrow against their stocks. This is why the Epstein class always want low interest rates; it is not about mortgages, at least not the kind where someone is homeless because they missed a payment.
They diluted the stock 3.4% in less than a week of trading 🤣. Invest with Musk at your own risk.
It was already stupidly diluted. Dumbest investment out there with only one way to go.
This is actually Elon Musk’s fault (that felt wrong to say), the company should never have been valued so highly anyway that was stupid. As far as I can tell Musk hasn’t actually done anything.
That drop is more than it’s worth.
Are they shocked that Elon has no respect for their share holder opinion?
Sure would be nice to have some food, affordable housing, and healthcare…
Get out of here, fracking lazy SOCIALIST!! 😡
Y’all just need to pull yourself up by the bootstraps
They keep going around trying to make the world a better place. Awful hateful people.
Right??! Frack them!!
lol
Down 6%.
The line wiggled a bit.
Well, and 5% the day before, and likely another 10% by the time it shakes out.
Morningstar puts the price at $62/share, so that’s a possibility there.
I think you mean PLUNGED or DECIMATED!
/s
Also I’m sick of these words in titles. As you said it’s barely a ripple overall.
TBi slams sensationalist headlines!
Oh no anyway
Former world’s first trillionaire
The other day I made a comment on the original IPO post saying that he isn’t a trillionaire because the IPO isn’t promising anything and got argued with about it.
Even Goldman Sachs was saying the IPO was ridiculous.
Everyone involved in this entire affair was an idiot. XAI has absolutely no product to speak of, where’s the valuation coming from?
But you have to understand, if we regulated these people, THEY WOULD LEAVE! then what would we do?
OH THE HUMANITY! WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THE BILLIONAIRES!!?!
Interestingly enough enough places in the world have attempted to tax billionaires that we do have some data. For the most part they don’t leave.
They can afford the tax anyway, and really the whole point of money, as far as their concerned, is to just throw it at people to solve problems for them. They don’t want to pay extra tax on principle because they don’t think other people should get their money, but they also don’t actually care enough to go to the effort to leaving.
Besides where would they go?
Once again, wealth trickles up to the billionaires.
Capitalism! Gotta love it, or not.
I choose ‘not’
The valuation of the stock is based on Musk doing what he’s always done, which is making seemingly impossible promises sometime in the future.
You know what he promised by 2025? A fleet of driverless Tesla taxis. xAI producing the first AGI. A human being on Mars planting a flag.
You know what the evaluation of SpaceX is based on? The promise of a Mars colony with one million human inhabitants, and space-based data centers. It’s going to be decades before it’s worth the IPO, if ever.
In the meantime SpaceX is in debt 20 billion, and is bleeding money. It lost $4.94 billion in 2025.
So it looks to me like a private equity project. Like Toys 'R Us or Radio Shack or Claire’s. Remember those?
And Nasdaq-100 is fast-tracking SpaceX into its portfolio after 15 days. Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks. So when it does implode, a lot of worker-class folk are going to eat the loss.
You know who I bet will not be eating the loss? Trillionaire Elon Musk.
My favorite part about data centers in space is it may actually be impossible from a physics standpoint to build the heat radiators large enough for even a small one. Even though space is cold and would seem to make sense, it is also a destructive vacuum and to radiate even a small amount of heat outside of a shielded core would take a huge array of radiators
It’s possible, but not economical.
For basically any “space datacenter” scenario, imagine putting that same thing in a vast desert instead. You’ll find it’s easier and an order of magnitude cheaper.
Yeah, maybe not impossible, but I mean extremely unlikely. I found a thread on reddit that had examples and a spreadsheet https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/comments/11kp7s4/how_large_of_a_heatradiator_would_a_spacecraft/
To run a data center in space you would need some kind of reactor producing around 100 MW. If rejecting 100 MW at 800 K
A= 100,000,000 / 0.85×5.670374419e−8×800
The number is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant (σ) https://physics.knox.edu/OnlineHW/zTest-PhysicalConstants.html
A≈5,065 m²
So roughly:
5,100 m² of radiating surface
That is a square about:
√(5065) ≈71 m per side
If it is a double-sided radiator panel, the physical panel area could be about half:
2,530 m² of panel, about 50 m × 50 m, assuming both sides radiate effectively.
Also temperature matters enormously so
At emissivity 0.85:
Radiator temp Area for 100 MW 300 K ~256,000 m² 500 K ~33,200 m² 800 K ~5,100 m² So the answer is about 5,000 m² (lol this is like “a football field” on each side) at 800 K, but balloons to absurd levels like hundreds of thousands of m² if you are trying to dump room-temperature waste heat which there would be a significant amount of. That is for a single small data center at current power needs. In the US alone data centers use 176 TWh (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48646), so there is no chance we are going to be migrating a significant portion of it into space.
No, it’s totally possible. Not with any technology we’ve ever built, maybe not with any technology we can build, but physics doesn’t preclude it outright.
Your point still stands though. It’s a promise that’s impossible to meet within the lifetime of the investors.
Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks.
Not mine. I’m selling my NASDAQ index fund next week. Thankfully the S&P said no.
For all his false promises: https://elonmusk.today/
Looks like the webmaster (do people still use that word?) is asleep at the wheel there.
Last update 266 days ago.
Elon musk also made seemingly impossible promises for Tesla and their stock price, and he exceeded them.
He didn’t deliver on any promise except the stock price itself that’s pumped up by lies and idiots believing in it.
That was the main promise lol
What technology promise did he make that he kept?
His promise of self-driving cars turned into a huge pile of accidents, especially since he insisted (still insists) that autopilot operate on a single sensor. Waymo uses five.
It’s not like his companies did nothing. Getting his launch vehicles to land safely, vertically, was way cool, but a small step on the way to space colonies or space tourism.
He promised to get teslas share price and sales figures etc to a seemingly impossible level, and he exceeded it which is why he was then due his gigantic pay packet that the courts then ridiculously blocked. You guys are doing the same thing to SpaceX as you did for Tesla, and the results will be the same - you’ll look foolish.
FSD on Teslas is insane. It’s demonstrably safer than real drivers. It doesn’t use a single sensor, it uses a single type of sensor, which has proven to be more than good enough.
Calling reusable self landing rockets a “small step” is beyond a joke. It’s probably the single biggest innovation in space travel since space travel has been a thing.
Tesla FSD is not safer than real drivers. All robotaxis are level 4 at most, so it’s an “apples vs oranges” thing. It’s like saying trains are safer than real drivers. By all accounts, the Tesla robotaxis are the worst that exist, and they’re barely being used where they’ve been rolled out.
I will give credit that Tesla forced other car manufacturers to innovate, but they’re outclassed in every way now.
FSD is a better driver than most people.
Jesus Christ thank you for reminding me to confirm I keep his shit as far away from my pension as possible. Thankfully I’m in Canada so I feel there’s a hope
Narrator: He was wrong.
