- cross-posted to:
- usa@midwest.social
- cross-posted to:
- usa@midwest.social
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Nothing screams “Mission Accomplished” like having to drag the big guns out of storage for a not-a-war that they keep saying has already been won. All Trump needs now is an aircraft carrier and a big banner. I assume reusing the USS Abraham Lincoln is out of the question since it was damaged by Iranian missiles.
Since my awareness that both Reagan and Clinton were huge POS, I thought I was living in crazy town. I’m pretty sure it’s just genocidal delululand, by now.
I do love how the US is now leaving their vassals naked cause it’s running out of weapons. By the time this is all over, the US is going to be exposed at a has been.
I feel like this has happened multiple times and
Atlasthe world shrugged and went back to brunch. 🥂I’d argue a debacle on this scale is new. Never before has the US been seen to be defeated so quickly and decisively. If Iran pushes the US out of West Asia, that’s going to be the end of American hegemony. The Gulf states are going to be forced to make nice with Iran because they’ll have no other choice. And vassals like Japan are going to have a hard time convincing themselves that US protection is worth anything at this point. If the US can’t defeat Iran, they’re obviously not going to take on China. On top of that, if Iran continues to demand that trade through Hormuz is settled in yuan that directly undermines the petrodollar. And it looks like the oil shock that’s primarily hurting US aligned countries is going to be structural and last for years, so either their economies crash or they start looking for alternatives.
On this scale, it’s absolutely new. It seems to me the cycle repeats with greater catastrophic outcomes.
If Iran pushes the US out of West Asia, that’s going to be the end of American hegemony. The Gulf states are going to be forced to make nice with Iran because they’ll have no other choice.
Inshallah/ojalá.
If the US can’t defeat Iran, they’re obviously not going to take on China.
I would have thought this would be the case, but the stupid seems to replicate itself, eclipsing the latest stupid actions.
I absolutely agree with the rest of your analysis. I just think you have more faith in US administration’s ability to check their stupidity, very much fueled by arrogance. Also I’m sleepy so take everything I say with a kilo of salt.
The stupidity bit I very much agree with, and there’s also the whole it’s hard for people to understand things they’re paid not to bit at play. The regimes in Japan and Korea, for example, are politically captured by the US. So, even if people would want change, there’s a strong institutional desire to keep doing what they’re doing.
I think Taiwan might be the most likely place to kick US puppets out. Most young people there aren’t anti China, and DPP has been losing popularity. KMT chairperson is about to visit mainland, and I think they have a very good chance of getting back into power now. Mainland also offered fuel relief, which DPP rejected, so when there are energy shortages people will rightly blame them for that. Once, KMT gets back in power, they might revive the deal they nearly made back in 2014 when the US launched the sunflower movement to derail it. As I recall, Taiwan would stay autonomous similar to HK where they still have their own laws, they’d get to retain their own military, but they’d officially become part of China. Taiwan would also get a representative on the mainland and become part of the loop in the decision making process. Basically, zero downsides for Taiwan here.
As a random side note, I was visiting HK a month ago, and it look amazing. I was talking to a friend who was there around a decade back, and he said that back then it was grimy, didn’t have a lot of walkable space, and everybody he talks to now says it’s completely different now. I fully expect that once Taiwan gets repatriated, there’s going to be a huge boost in economic development there too from increased trade with the mainland.
By any chance do you have a link to tye 2014 draft deal? Or know where to find one? If not thats fine
I think it was the CSSTA agreement they reference here https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/taiwanese-oppositions-plan-revive-talks-china-will-likely-backfire
The regimes in Japan and Korea, for example, are politically captured by the US. So, even if people would want change, there’s a strong institutional desire to keep doing what they’re doing.
That’s depressing.
I think Taiwan might be the most likely place to kick US puppets out. Most young people there aren’t anti China, and DPP has been losing popularity. KMT chairperson is about to visit mainland, and I think they have a very good chance of getting back into power now. Mainland also offered fuel relief, which DPP rejected, so when there are energy shortages people will rightly blame them for that. Once, KMT gets back in power, they might revive the deal they nearly made back in 2014 when the US launched the sunflower movement to derail it. As I recall, Taiwan would stay autonomous similar to HK where they still have their own laws, they’d get to retain their own military, but they’d officially become part of China. Taiwan would also get a representative on the mainland and become part of the loop in the decision making process. Basically, zero downsides for Taiwan here.
This is hopeful, and I do hope you’re right! Plus if Taiwan go first, occupied Korea may see advantages and incline toward reunification, which would be great for their citizens; the corrupt rolling class, I’m not sure.
Japan is a special case and I’d think the premiere would realize she’s on a sinking ship, but she’s apparently bet the house on US and doubled down with the barn.
I’m kinda expecting occupied Korea to implode due to their population crisis within a decade or two. That’s probably the most realistic path towards reunification. And Japan really seems to be suicidal like Europe. They refuse to play nice with their neighbours, and they’ve made themselves incredibly dependent on the US. Once the hegemony collapses, they’re going to be one of the biggest losers I suspect.
I think you might be misreading who comes to that realization. I read it as the vassals(Japan & EU) will realize the US can’t take on China. The US won’t come to that conclusion any time soon.
That seems more likely.
