The stupidity bit I very much agree with, and there’s also the whole it’s hard for people to understand things they’re paid not to bit at play. The regimes in Japan and Korea, for example, are politically captured by the US. So, even if people would want change, there’s a strong institutional desire to keep doing what they’re doing.
I think Taiwan might be the most likely place to kick US puppets out. Most young people there aren’t anti China, and DPP has been losing popularity. KMT chairperson is about to visit mainland, and I think they have a very good chance of getting back into power now. Mainland also offered fuel relief, which DPP rejected, so when there are energy shortages people will rightly blame them for that. Once, KMT gets back in power, they might revive the deal they nearly made back in 2014 when the US launched the sunflower movement to derail it. As I recall, Taiwan would stay autonomous similar to HK where they still have their own laws, they’d get to retain their own military, but they’d officially become part of China. Taiwan would also get a representative on the mainland and become part of the loop in the decision making process. Basically, zero downsides for Taiwan here.
As a random side note, I was visiting HK a month ago, and it look amazing. I was talking to a friend who was there around a decade back, and he said that back then it was grimy, didn’t have a lot of walkable space, and everybody he talks to now says it’s completely different now. I fully expect that once Taiwan gets repatriated, there’s going to be a huge boost in economic development there too from increased trade with the mainland.
The regimes in Japan and Korea, for example, are politically captured by the US. So, even if people would want change, there’s a strong institutional desire to keep doing what they’re doing.
That’s depressing.
I think Taiwan might be the most likely place to kick US puppets out. Most young people there aren’t anti China, and DPP has been losing popularity. KMT chairperson is about to visit mainland, and I think they have a very good chance of getting back into power now. Mainland also offered fuel relief, which DPP rejected, so when there are energy shortages people will rightly blame them for that. Once, KMT gets back in power, they might revive the deal they nearly made back in 2014 when the US launched the sunflower movement to derail it. As I recall, Taiwan would stay autonomous similar to HK where they still have their own laws, they’d get to retain their own military, but they’d officially become part of China. Taiwan would also get a representative on the mainland and become part of the loop in the decision making process. Basically, zero downsides for Taiwan here.
This is hopeful, and I do hope you’re right! Plus if Taiwan go first, occupied Korea may see advantages and incline toward reunification, which would be great for their citizens; the corrupt rolling class, I’m not sure.
Japan is a special case and I’d think the premiere would realize she’s on a sinking ship, but she’s apparently bet the house on US and doubled down with the barn.
I’m kinda expecting occupied Korea to implode due to their population crisis within a decade or two. That’s probably the most realistic path towards reunification. And Japan really seems to be suicidal like Europe. They refuse to play nice with their neighbours, and they’ve made themselves incredibly dependent on the US. Once the hegemony collapses, they’re going to be one of the biggest losers I suspect.
The stupidity bit I very much agree with, and there’s also the whole it’s hard for people to understand things they’re paid not to bit at play. The regimes in Japan and Korea, for example, are politically captured by the US. So, even if people would want change, there’s a strong institutional desire to keep doing what they’re doing.
I think Taiwan might be the most likely place to kick US puppets out. Most young people there aren’t anti China, and DPP has been losing popularity. KMT chairperson is about to visit mainland, and I think they have a very good chance of getting back into power now. Mainland also offered fuel relief, which DPP rejected, so when there are energy shortages people will rightly blame them for that. Once, KMT gets back in power, they might revive the deal they nearly made back in 2014 when the US launched the sunflower movement to derail it. As I recall, Taiwan would stay autonomous similar to HK where they still have their own laws, they’d get to retain their own military, but they’d officially become part of China. Taiwan would also get a representative on the mainland and become part of the loop in the decision making process. Basically, zero downsides for Taiwan here.
As a random side note, I was visiting HK a month ago, and it look amazing. I was talking to a friend who was there around a decade back, and he said that back then it was grimy, didn’t have a lot of walkable space, and everybody he talks to now says it’s completely different now. I fully expect that once Taiwan gets repatriated, there’s going to be a huge boost in economic development there too from increased trade with the mainland.
By any chance do you have a link to tye 2014 draft deal? Or know where to find one? If not thats fine
I think it was the CSSTA agreement they reference here https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/taiwanese-oppositions-plan-revive-talks-china-will-likely-backfire
As far as I can trust the translation I had that had nothing about Chinese Taipei sending a delegate or accepting PRC sovereignty
Yeah, I might’ve remembered that part wrong or mixed it up with something else.
That’s depressing.
This is hopeful, and I do hope you’re right! Plus if Taiwan go first, occupied Korea may see advantages and incline toward reunification, which would be great for their citizens; the corrupt rolling class, I’m not sure.
Japan is a special case and I’d think the premiere would realize she’s on a sinking ship, but she’s apparently bet the house on US and doubled down with the barn.
I’m kinda expecting occupied Korea to implode due to their population crisis within a decade or two. That’s probably the most realistic path towards reunification. And Japan really seems to be suicidal like Europe. They refuse to play nice with their neighbours, and they’ve made themselves incredibly dependent on the US. Once the hegemony collapses, they’re going to be one of the biggest losers I suspect.
That may be the more realistic probability, but a comrade dreams, you know?