All your questions are answered in article, if you only read it instead of stopping on the title.

Russian action would almost certainly be cloaked – as in the past – in some scarcely plausible disguise. A drone strike could be blamed on Ukraine or dismissed as an accident. A border incursion could be explained away as a GPS failure or a search-and-rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter that had crashed after inadvertently crossing into Polish airspace.

The plausible deniability route is not Russia’s only escalation option, defence officials say. Russia could instead simulate air strikes on Poland using zombie missiles, decoy drones or signal spoofing to create ghost tracks on radar screens, forcing the Polish military to activate air defences.

A fourth Baltic security source confirmed to The Telegraph that such plans were under discussion in Moscow. Russia may then attempt to claim the provocation was carried out by Ukraine afterwards.

Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.