A bit old reference, but so glad to see informed people here!

There is truth to Israel’s claims: Iran has possessed the physical and human capacity to develop nuclear weapons for decades. This capability served as the primary deterrent against Israeli or U.S. attacks on Tehran, particularly after what happened to Iraq and Libya. However, the situation is a bit more complex though:

The Iranian leadership understands that if they were to accumulate nuclear stockpiles, Israel is genocidal enough to nuclear wipe those facilities and the entire Tehran itself upon a mere confirmation of such. Worse yet, much of the Western world would had accepted such an outcome, so de facto giving an incentive for Israel to do so (not that it needed one). Iranian intelligence also recognizes that even its top commanders are not criminal enough to use nuclear weapons first or even second, especially without extensive deliberation, and time in such an incredibly fast-scale conflict is something Tehran would not have. Therefore, Iran treats the nuclear option primarily as a negotiating card rather than an immediate or mid-term goal.

So, I believe Israel’s assessment is credible: Iran could potentially develop a nuclear weapon within weeks. However, the Israeli intelligence knows that Iran neither had nor has intention of pursuing this path since 10-20 years.

Meanwhile, Iran has focused in incredibly advanced its missile capabilities, which are now nearly unstoppable, and now also is probably getting assistance from China and Russia in purely defense technology. This provides Iran with sufficient deterrence for now; what remains necessary is securing counterintelligence operations to protect these missile systems.

For negotiations, control of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as an effective strategic lever. This means Iran no longer needs the nuclear capability as the leverage and could potentially give it as a bone to Trump.

Things have shifted so much in the region that Iran now feels emboldened enough to demand that attacks on a third country, Lebanon, to cease; We once believed only two powers possessed such clout: the US and China, the only difference that the newcomer uses it for good (so far). The world has indeed changed!

Day after day, the evidence is there more and more. Now, there is far more nuance that characterizations like this, but the essence it is there.

As mentioned by others, Sanchez does not control the Basque police, not that the Spanish police will be behaving any different anyways.

The problem with the Police in the entire Iberia is the toxic Hollywoodized culture they get in once inside. For instance, I take that one police officer over reacted and the rest, instead of mitigating that erroneous stance, jumped to defend that officer without no questions. After seeing all videos published, this could have been prevented 100% by mere sensible policing.

I like the OP comment with this. In the West, with no exceptions, the police has completely been going through a militarization culture. The Israel involvement with all these police departments is just part of it all since the US promotes that inter-police-collaboration and sources sharing, unaware Europeans that there is an agenda with it all. That started with US movies and series for decades keep portraying the “efficiency” of such models and then when Europe offer its hand to US after 9-11, US took the arm. Of course, Western governments welcomed it all and gave the funds for the total conversion. Israel/US are just very good at using movies, media and unparalleled inside access to filtrate into procurement channels of the Western Police departments.

But, unlike US, there is hope for a handful of European police forces to be retrained to serve the community back. I just don’t see it the political will thought, not even in Sanchez’s government (that is very fragile at the moment anyways). The reason for hope is that the people that join the Spanish police, for instance, are highly representative of the society when joining… it just gets the toxic culture of militarization and power once inside through politicians endorsement and police unions. In the US, the people that join the police forces come already with the toxic culture (and far less trained individuals too!).

Let’s see the Basque official statement in this event on Tuesday; I hope there will be a bit of criticism on their police action, since it clearly overacted with just someone “no obeying an order to stand back” in a mundane situation; but not much hope for even that concession to be frank.