China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Look a Lot Like Japan’s Lost Decade - CEOWORLD magazine
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China’s Property Slump Is Starting to Look Uncomfortably Familiar It is not often that the world’s second‑largest economy finds itself compared, in sober academic work, to Japan on the eve of its “Lost Decade.” Yet that is precisely where China’s real estate sector now sits: in what analysts describe as the middle passage of a […]

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/53072462

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[…]

The central risk is not a sudden systemic collapse, but a drawn‑out period of sub‑par growth, weak returns on investment, and fragile confidence—a pattern that will sound familiar to students of Japan’s post‑1990 trajectory.

Several specific challenges stand out:

  • Demographics: An aging, shrinking population caps housing demand and undermines the traditional link between urbanization and construction booms.
  • Balance sheets: Developers, local governments, and some financial institutions face long, grinding deleveraging cycles.
  • Policy trade‑offs: Stimulating housing too aggressively risks re‑inflating the bubble; tightening too hard risks tipping growth into a deeper downturn.
  • Confidence: Once households lose faith in property as a one‑way wealth escalator, rebuilding sentiment can take years.

[…]

  • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
    51·
    8 days ago

    Same is true in China, they have laws lmao.

    I can’t lose my home for criticizing the government.

    Also you kinda can, eminent domain has famously been used against entire populations that a mayor, governor, or urban planner simply didn’t like.

      • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
        1·
        8 days ago

        So what do you not actually care about whether property ownership is meaningfully different in China vs western countries beyond its use as hostile evidence?

          • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
            1·
            8 days ago

            I told you how things actually work, in both China and America, is anything that doesn’t reinforce preconceived notions bad faith to you?

            • AceOnTrack@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
              1·
              8 days ago

              You’re using the USA, a country just as shit if not worse than China when it comes to human rights to try and make China look good.

              That’s the bad faith argument.

              • Alcoholicorn@mander.xyzEnglish
                1·
                8 days ago

                1. Property isn’t a human right.

                2. America is the easiest as I am most familiar with it since I lived there. There’s no European country I am aware of that doesn’t require you pay money to continue to own property, and have the ability to force you to sell at a price they pick, if they say they have a reason.

                Yes, you can argue against them in court, that’s true in China too, and there are rare cases where the state doesn’t have a legal mechanism to do so, and the highway or w/e has to be routed around the home, that’s true in China too.