Believe Fascists when they tell you who they are the first time.
This is not bluffing, Hegseth and Trump are cowards, but to be cowardly is to seek a final war in order to simplify the complex nuances of life into extremist, reductive black and white terms.
I hope this ceasefire holds but I don’t doubt Trump would use nuclear weapons here and needless to say it would be a disaster for the entire world. There is still a good chance this will happen regardless.
There is no doubt that there was a whole bombing campaign planned and made ready to do.
But in the end Trump decided that the dollar signs he would get was impossible to pass up and so agreed to the cease fire.
All that has to happen now is ships passing through the strait safely.
This is not over yet, there is no reason to believe Trump will stick to this and Israel IMMEDIATELY violated the terms of the ceasefire.
Actually there is reason for Trump not to violate and turn back. Any attempt to do so will result in the strait being closed again.
If there is one thing that Trump does listen to it’s bthe stock market, and the stock market says “don’t go to war with a nation that can destroy the global economy.”
Trump cares and he doesn’t care. Trump is a mad king. We cannot make the massive mistake of assuming because Trump is unarguably a coward that this means he will will always back down from further escalation. Even if he always intended to coward out by de-escalating he is such a dementia addled idiot that he might just fuck it up and escalate by accident. He is also an old crazy fuck who isn’t far from the grave from his poor health, don’t expect him to necessarily act rationale about anything it is entirely within the realm of possibility that Trump might attempt to use a nuclear weapon on Iran abruptly for no good reason. Let us treat that danger seriously while celebrating what appears to be a de-escalation.
It’s less thinking that he is going to act totally rational but that his behavior has reached to a point the only genuine thing he cares is “can I profit.” And in this case the answer is “depends if you leave Iran alone or not.” With the yes being to leave Iran alone.
Iran has control of the strait, that is fact no matter what Trump does.